Jacques Attali
Allen &
Unwin
2009
Reviewer: Bob Estreich
Jacques Attali was President of the
European Bank of Development in the 1990s and also has a deep interest in the
history of economic development. In this book he traces the development of nine
major “nodes” in world power, including
Bruges, Venice, Antwerp, Amsterdam, London, and New York. He proposes
that each of the nodes was developed on the basis of a number of critical
factors, including transport, a strategic position, a productive hinterland to
support the growth of the city, and technical advances that gave that
particular city an advantage over its competitors (For example the development
of printing in Antwerp).
In the later nodes like London and New
York the driving force was finance and insurance, and he covers the financial
events leading to the global market crash we are currently experiencing. His
explanation of the collapse of each node is, while strongly financially based,
still historically based and he makes a strong case for his point of view. He
also proposes that a new ninth node, based on Los Angeles, will develop around
2035, fuelled by the growth in the entertainment industry of nearby Hollywood
and the Silicon Valley technical developments. Both technologies will be in
greater demand by a society that will have more leisure time due to the
increasing mechanisation of industry.
Attali then sets out his vision of the
future power balance in the world around the middle of this century, and some
of the countries he sees as power centres are surprising. His rather gloomy
forecast of a disintegrating world ecology is paralleled by a decrease in the
importance of individual nations as industries migrate to cheaper sources of
labour. This could, however, make wars less relevant. He also sees a possible
resurgence in religion as a source of political influence, and the growth of
pseudo-nation states based on ethnicity. These will be accompanied by much
disruption as groups fight for power in their own area.
An interesting point is developed about
the migration of industries. Attali sees this accompanied by a “hypernomad”
group – the managers, technicians and engineers who will oversee the processes
in whatever country they will currently be located in, but who will be expected
to follow the migration of the industries as economic circumstances change.
Another interesting point is the need to
fund an increasing number of retirees from a reducing workforce. “To maintain
the current ratio of active workers to retirees, we must accept either an
increase in taxes, in the birthrate, or in immigration”. This will itself be
controversial, as many countries which are net importers of workers are already
experiencing hostility to immigrants. There will be some interesting balancing
acts as governments try to maintain the number of taxpaying workers by immigration
in the face of industries that are actively exporting themselves to low labour
cost countries.
An increasing amount of the world’s wealth
will be concentrated in the hands of a smaller number of people and these,
through the corporations they control, will be the true rulers of the world.
This may generate hostility if these rich people make the wrong decisions – we
are already seeing this in the U.S. as a result of the financial collapse of
prominent companies.
To counter this Attali predicts a growth
of microeconomic reforms, “solidarity networks”, and other people-friendly ways
to attempt to maintain the democratic process. As an outcome of these measures
there will be fewer people-unfriendly local wars as the underprivileged try to
maintain some sort of living standards in the face of an increasingly hostile
climate and economic environment.
Quite early in the book Attali raises some
questions which could affect the future of the world and its structure, such as
“will poverty and inequalities in wealthy countries become the wellspring for
new violence?” and “will genetically modified food or nanotechnologies prove a
threat or an opportunity?” and “will religious war once again pit Christianity
against Islam?” His predictions, while necessarily still vague in some areas,
are disturbing.
The most frightening thing about the book
is its plausibility. Attali states them in a clear and understandable form. He
is well qualified to make these predictions, although not everyone agrees with
them. Even if half the predictions do not come to pass, the remaining ones
still make the future look grim. His examination of the current U.S.–based
financial crisis that has grown to affect the rest of the world is so close to
what has been reported that it is hard to dismiss his views of the future.
This review will appear in Volume 2 No.3
(2009) of the digital and print edition of Synergy Magazine.
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